Portfolio Construction
April 8, 2026
As the correlation between stocks and bonds has turned positive, many investors have questioned whether bonds still provide meaningful diversification and have looked to alternative replacements. This perspective argues that most popular substitutes add more equity risk, not less.
Alternative Investing
March 25, 2026
I push back on claims that I predicted recent turmoil in private markets, clarifying that my prior work focused on long-term issues like volatility measurement, illiquidity, and expected returns, not short-term market calls.
Portfolio Risk And Performance
August 13, 2025
Our latest piece on buffer funds appears in the current issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management. Once again, and with more analysis and clarity than earlier work, we revisit the cost of risk-reduced returns.
Asset Allocation
June 5, 2025
This post revisits a long-standing argument against market timing and shows that the risk and rewards of market timing are more symmetric than commonly portrayed.
Portfolio Risk And Performance
May 8, 2025
Last month, we posted a short piece critical of options-based strategies such as defined outcome funds and buffered ETFs. This response takes a closer look at the claims around lower downside risk.
Perspective
April 20, 2025
My partner, Antti Ilmanen, is launching a new series on return expectations. The series focuses on how investors actually form their own beliefs about expected returns.
Alternative Investing
March 26, 2025
While uncorrelated alternatives can be beneficial, they often fail to significantly impact the overall portfolio. Here, I argue that adding beta to these alternatives can enhance capital efficiency.
Portfolio Risk And Performance
March 21, 2025
Options-based strategies often labeled with words like buffered, overlay, and defined return have amassed a sizable chunk of investor money. But can they actually deliver?
Asset Allocation
January 7, 2025
A look back from a future vantage point, reflecting on how the latest decade rewarded patience, disciplined rebalancing, and diversified risk taking.
Alternative Investing
September 4, 2024
The note argues that high-volatility alternative investments can be valuable when they are uncorrelated with traditional market risk and sized thoughtfully.